Watch David Hetherington exec director PerCapita on The Drum ABC 24 22/06/11 http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/788652 (expires 2/7/11 days)
Watch Tim Soutphommasane of PerCapita on The Drum ABC 24 23/06/11 http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/788655 (expires 3/7/11 days)
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Tim Soutphommasane appears on ABC24's THE DRUM
Per Capita’s Tim Soutphommasane will be appearing on THE DRUM, ABC24, tonight at 6.05pm Thursday 23 June 2011.
ENERGY MATTERS VIDEO NEWS
Energy Matters V-News reports on David Hetherington's recent AFR op-ed "Solar yield beats BHP any time."
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
David Hetherington on Life Matters today
David Hetherington, Per Capita’s Executive Director, will be appearing on
Radio National, Life Matters, at 9.05am this morning Tuesday 21 June 2011.
Radio National, Life Matters, at 9.05am this morning Tuesday 21 June 2011.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Solar yield beats BHP any time
Per Capita’s David Hetherington writes in today’s AFR. "Forget the blue-chip shares, opt instead for the sun’s rays. It’s a far better deal." p59 http://bit.ly/khD4ng (subscription required).
Unedited version:
Is Ross Garnaut right to suggest that big business in Australia is anti-reform? Are we foregoing innovation opportunities because business has “returned to old type” of the pre-reform era?
Let’s test the proposition on one proposed innovation which holds iconic status in the battle between skeptics and Greens: solar power. Writing in the Herald Sun this week, Andrew Bolt decries the appeal to solar, observing pithily that solar power stops when the sun don’t shine.
Yet what if innovation can detach solar from its reliance on green credentials? If you look at solar power from entirely another perspective it makes enormous financial sense for a growing part of our population, independent of its sustainability.
For emerging ‘solar plus storage’ technologies for homes and small businesses offer a new investment class that is more profitable than BHP Billiton shares and safer than bank shares. Tosh? Let’s see.
The first great law of technological change is that the existing players, no matter how big, how successful, universally fail to make the change to new disruptive technologies. Flown on a Cunard airliner lately? Booted up your RCA Victor computer? Used a Bell mobile phone?
At the moment we see newspapers and recording industries being undermined by the Internet. In the past railways and steamships yielded to aeroplanes and cars. It will happen in the electricity industry too, no matter how many times they are warned they will still be shocked to discover their bread and butter business is disappearing, just like the traditional telcos were shocked when punters abandoned land lines.
When you buy electricity for your home it costs around 23 to 27 cents per kilowatt hour plus supply charges. But the wholesale price of power at the power station is only around 3.3 cents. So the distribution increases the cost 800% or more. So the problem is not one of supply but distribution. And most of the money needed for the power industry in the next 10 year is not for generation, it is for wires.
Even Mr Bolt would agree that large bits of Australia are very sunny. In many locations, the cost of carbon-neutral solar power from the sun, falling on the roof of an Australian home is cheaper than electricity coming down the wire. This is because the price of solar panels and storage batteries are falling rapidly in part due to technology, but also increased supply and lastly, the exchange rate. It just depends on how you look at the cost.
Consider what Australian investors need over the next 20 years. The post-war baby boom and the superannuation industry mean that an enormous number of Australians are already, or will become, self funded retirees in the next 10 years. What they need are safe, high yielding, stable, inflation-proof investments.
If you buy property you have to face the prospect that Australia's property market is unlikely to continue to grow at its recent rate. On present indications, it might even fall. So too it is unlikely BHP will always enjoy such halcyon commodity prices and terms of trade. The Chinese aren't franticly building mines in darkest Africa for no reason. One thing we can say for certain is that power prices are going to rise. The other great certainty is tax.
So our self-funded retiree has to invest their lump sum and first pay tax on the dividends, then pay their power bills. If your power bills are $1,000 a year and you pay them with after-tax money earned from BHP dividends today you need $47,000 of BHP shares just to pay your power bill. And if the price of iron ore in China falls (not something you have a lot of control over) you will need even more shares to pay the bills. Investment property returns are not much better.
So it seems to Per Capita a sensible option is to take some of this lump sum and invest instead in solar panels, whack them on your roof (a place over which you do have some control) and put a battery in your garage.
Two kilowatts of solar panels on your roof in the most parts of Australia will make $1,000 of power a year. These 2KW panels cost a lot less than $47,000 of BHP shares - and when the price of iron ore falls in China, you don't care. When the price of conventional power rises due to inflation (and it is predicted to skyrocket), you still don't care.
For the sake of argument let’s say you can install 2kw panels with batteries for $15,000.
So an investment of $15,000 will save you $1,000 of power bills per year. This is a 6.7% return, but you don't pay tax on savings so would need to earn 9.5% on shares or rental property to match this rate (if you are paying 30% tax)
To match this your BHP shares would also have to yield 9.5% (instead of 3.0%), with dividends increasing at the same rate as electricity prices. That’s not going to happen.
These calculations assume no bounties, no feed-tariffs, nothing. If these extras are available, they simply make the economics better.
And happily, all this saves the planet since solar power is essentially free of carbon emissions.
It begins to look like you can have your can have your cake and eat it too.
This kind of direct action has three huge benefits: it reduces household Co2 emissions to nearly zero at zero cost; it takes load off the grid, so saves the nation money; and it future-proofs one small aspect of retirement. It just needs an innovative approach to market design and secured financing that seems beyond some of today’s business leaders.
Unedited version:
Is Ross Garnaut right to suggest that big business in Australia is anti-reform? Are we foregoing innovation opportunities because business has “returned to old type” of the pre-reform era?
Let’s test the proposition on one proposed innovation which holds iconic status in the battle between skeptics and Greens: solar power. Writing in the Herald Sun this week, Andrew Bolt decries the appeal to solar, observing pithily that solar power stops when the sun don’t shine.
Yet what if innovation can detach solar from its reliance on green credentials? If you look at solar power from entirely another perspective it makes enormous financial sense for a growing part of our population, independent of its sustainability.
For emerging ‘solar plus storage’ technologies for homes and small businesses offer a new investment class that is more profitable than BHP Billiton shares and safer than bank shares. Tosh? Let’s see.
The first great law of technological change is that the existing players, no matter how big, how successful, universally fail to make the change to new disruptive technologies. Flown on a Cunard airliner lately? Booted up your RCA Victor computer? Used a Bell mobile phone?
At the moment we see newspapers and recording industries being undermined by the Internet. In the past railways and steamships yielded to aeroplanes and cars. It will happen in the electricity industry too, no matter how many times they are warned they will still be shocked to discover their bread and butter business is disappearing, just like the traditional telcos were shocked when punters abandoned land lines.
When you buy electricity for your home it costs around 23 to 27 cents per kilowatt hour plus supply charges. But the wholesale price of power at the power station is only around 3.3 cents. So the distribution increases the cost 800% or more. So the problem is not one of supply but distribution. And most of the money needed for the power industry in the next 10 year is not for generation, it is for wires.
Even Mr Bolt would agree that large bits of Australia are very sunny. In many locations, the cost of carbon-neutral solar power from the sun, falling on the roof of an Australian home is cheaper than electricity coming down the wire. This is because the price of solar panels and storage batteries are falling rapidly in part due to technology, but also increased supply and lastly, the exchange rate. It just depends on how you look at the cost.
Consider what Australian investors need over the next 20 years. The post-war baby boom and the superannuation industry mean that an enormous number of Australians are already, or will become, self funded retirees in the next 10 years. What they need are safe, high yielding, stable, inflation-proof investments.
If you buy property you have to face the prospect that Australia's property market is unlikely to continue to grow at its recent rate. On present indications, it might even fall. So too it is unlikely BHP will always enjoy such halcyon commodity prices and terms of trade. The Chinese aren't franticly building mines in darkest Africa for no reason. One thing we can say for certain is that power prices are going to rise. The other great certainty is tax.
So our self-funded retiree has to invest their lump sum and first pay tax on the dividends, then pay their power bills. If your power bills are $1,000 a year and you pay them with after-tax money earned from BHP dividends today you need $47,000 of BHP shares just to pay your power bill. And if the price of iron ore in China falls (not something you have a lot of control over) you will need even more shares to pay the bills. Investment property returns are not much better.
So it seems to Per Capita a sensible option is to take some of this lump sum and invest instead in solar panels, whack them on your roof (a place over which you do have some control) and put a battery in your garage.
Two kilowatts of solar panels on your roof in the most parts of Australia will make $1,000 of power a year. These 2KW panels cost a lot less than $47,000 of BHP shares - and when the price of iron ore falls in China, you don't care. When the price of conventional power rises due to inflation (and it is predicted to skyrocket), you still don't care.
For the sake of argument let’s say you can install 2kw panels with batteries for $15,000.
So an investment of $15,000 will save you $1,000 of power bills per year. This is a 6.7% return, but you don't pay tax on savings so would need to earn 9.5% on shares or rental property to match this rate (if you are paying 30% tax)
To match this your BHP shares would also have to yield 9.5% (instead of 3.0%), with dividends increasing at the same rate as electricity prices. That’s not going to happen.
These calculations assume no bounties, no feed-tariffs, nothing. If these extras are available, they simply make the economics better.
And happily, all this saves the planet since solar power is essentially free of carbon emissions.
It begins to look like you can have your can have your cake and eat it too.
This kind of direct action has three huge benefits: it reduces household Co2 emissions to nearly zero at zero cost; it takes load off the grid, so saves the nation money; and it future-proofs one small aspect of retirement. It just needs an innovative approach to market design and secured financing that seems beyond some of today’s business leaders.
Friday, June 10, 2011
The paradox of prosperity
David Hetherington
Despite the booming economy, most Australians aren’t feeling so positive about Labor's recent spate of progressive political reforms
At the recent Progressive Governance conference in Oslo, Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg’s concluding remarks brought a wry smile to the faces of the Australian delegates. Pressed on challenges of a green economy, Stoltenberg said: “It’s quite simple, really - you adopt the ‘polluter pays’ principle and put a price on carbon.”
If only it were so easy in Australia. Putting a price on carbon remains an existential challenge for Julia Gillard’s Labor Government. While the government remains resolute in its commitment to carbon pricing, it is under siege from big business and the conservative media, and is foundering in the opinion polls.
Read full story here
Despite the booming economy, most Australians aren’t feeling so positive about Labor's recent spate of progressive political reforms
At the recent Progressive Governance conference in Oslo, Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg’s concluding remarks brought a wry smile to the faces of the Australian delegates. Pressed on challenges of a green economy, Stoltenberg said: “It’s quite simple, really - you adopt the ‘polluter pays’ principle and put a price on carbon.”
If only it were so easy in Australia. Putting a price on carbon remains an existential challenge for Julia Gillard’s Labor Government. While the government remains resolute in its commitment to carbon pricing, it is under siege from big business and the conservative media, and is foundering in the opinion polls.
Read full story here
Monday, June 6, 2011
David Hetherington to appear on ABC24 The Drum 06/06/11 6:05pm
David Hetherington, Per Capita’s Executive Director, will be appearing on ABC24, The Drum, at 6pm tonight, Monday 6 June 2011.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Karl Bitar's leap to Crown Casino
by David Hetherington
It’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry at the news that former Labor boss Karl Bitar is joining Crown Casino. The scriptwriters at the Simpsons couldn’t have cast a more delicious storyline, but at the same time it simply cements the public’s rock-bottom perception of politics and its practitioners.
... In some sections of corporate Australia, it’s assumed that anything which threatens a company’s quarterly earnings is by extension a cancer on our body politic. Over the last year alone, a host of policy proposals have attracted organised corporate resistance: the resource rent tax, banking competition, pokies reform, MySuper, cigarette advertising and, not least, a carbon price. An American CEO is famously misquoted as saying in the 1950s that “what‘s good for General Motors is good for the country”. In the last few months, we might have rephrased this to say: “If it’s bad for BlueScope or Rio or British American Tobacco, it’s bad for Australia.”
To read full article link here.
It’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry at the news that former Labor boss Karl Bitar is joining Crown Casino. The scriptwriters at the Simpsons couldn’t have cast a more delicious storyline, but at the same time it simply cements the public’s rock-bottom perception of politics and its practitioners.
... In some sections of corporate Australia, it’s assumed that anything which threatens a company’s quarterly earnings is by extension a cancer on our body politic. Over the last year alone, a host of policy proposals have attracted organised corporate resistance: the resource rent tax, banking competition, pokies reform, MySuper, cigarette advertising and, not least, a carbon price. An American CEO is famously misquoted as saying in the 1950s that “what‘s good for General Motors is good for the country”. In the last few months, we might have rephrased this to say: “If it’s bad for BlueScope or Rio or British American Tobacco, it’s bad for Australia.”
To read full article link here.
Wayne Swan, The Story Behind the Budget Part Three - Spreading Opportunity, Melbourne, 17/05/03
Wayne Swan addresses PerCapita Luncheon: The Story Behind the Budget Part Three - Spreading Opportunity.
Wayne Swan praises PerCapita as one of the "most important think tanks we have in this country".
Video 1
Link to YouTube 1/2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C87WYEy5Q6k&feature=player_profilepage
Video 2
Link to YouTube 2/2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jNpeipqa5U&feature=player_profilepage
Link to transcript: http://bit.ly/jmqLX1
Wayne Swan praises PerCapita as one of the "most important think tanks we have in this country".
Video 1
Link to YouTube 1/2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C87WYEy5Q6k&feature=player_profilepage
Video 2
Link to YouTube 2/2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jNpeipqa5U&feature=player_profilepage
Link to transcript: http://bit.ly/jmqLX1
Penny Wong speaks at PerCapita public forum, Melbourne 03/05/11
Penny Wong speaks at PerCapita public forum in Melbourne on 03/05/11,
The 2011 Budget and the return to surplus - Link to transcript: http://bit.ly/jkfIJG
Introduction by PerCapita Executive Director, David Hetherington.
Video 1
Link to YouTube - 1/2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7b0PY-kD7M
Video 2
Link to YouTube - part 2/2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZZWS4N1vzk
The 2011 Budget and the return to surplus - Link to transcript: http://bit.ly/jkfIJG
Introduction by PerCapita Executive Director, David Hetherington.
Video 1
Link to YouTube - 1/2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7b0PY-kD7M
Video 2
Link to YouTube - part 2/2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZZWS4N1vzk
Friday, May 27, 2011
Cost of living crisis? Life in Australia is better than ever
Check out PerCapita's Rupert Denton excellent piece on The Drum: Cost of living crisis? Life in Australia is better than ever. Link here for the full article
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Swan among sympathisers
Today the Australian Financial Review writes on p46: After the hammering he’s been getting around the country spruiking the budget, Wayne Swan was happy to be among friends in Melbourne yesterday. Wayne Swan was the star attraction at a lunch put on by PerCapita. Link: http://bit.ly/jbGy4C (subscription required)
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
The Story Behind the Budget Part Three: Spreading Opportunity
Transcript of the address to Per Capita by the Treasurer, the Hon Wayne Swan MP, in Melbourne today http://bit.ly/jmqLX1
Middle class welfare: not happy Julia
Chris Berg writes on The Drum “Perhaps families earning $150,000 a year are “rich”. Perhaps they’re not. But it’s intuitively obvious they shouldn’t receive welfare”. He goes on to say “In the Weekend Australian (Open the public purse to meet need, not greed - http://bit.ly/lDBNBe), Tim Soutphommasane (of the progressive think tank Per Capita) said “Any fair and efficient system of welfare … should be guided by a principle of need.” To read the full article, link here: http://bit.ly/k1DRo9
Open the public purse to meet need, not greed
Tim Soutphommasane writes in the Weekend Australian “Should a household with an income of $150,000 consider itself to be rich? THE treasurers and finance ministers of the world know better than anyone the iron laws of fiscal politics: there is nothing easier than promising an extra share of the public booty and nothing more difficult than raising taxes. ... Any fair and efficient system of welfare, ..., should be guided by a principle of need. The government simply cannot support everyone. ... Those aspiring to a life of plasma screen televisions, posh European cars and private schooling for their children shouldn't be crying poor. They certainly shouldn't be looking for largesse from the public treasury. If they are doing it tough, they should have more realistic expectations about what it means to live well.
To read the full post, link here: http://bit.ly/lDBNBe
To read the full post, link here: http://bit.ly/lDBNBe
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
PerCapita hosts Treasurer's post-budget address and luncheon, 17 May 2011
The Hon. Wayne Swan MP, Federal Treasurer, will deliver a Post-Budget Address to the Melbourne business community, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the 2011-2012 Federal Budget, and how it will impact corporate Australia.
Please join us for lunch to hear the Treasurer deliver the first public post-Budget Address in Melbourne.
Date: Tuesday 17 May 2011, 12.30pm.
Venue: Swanston Room, Melbourne Town Hall, Corner Swanston and Collins Streets, Melbourne
Tickets: $2,700 + GST for a table of ten ($270 + GST individual tickets)
$1,350 + GST for non-profit organisations
For further information or to book tickets, please visit our website or contact Allison Orr on 0423 602 771 or a.orr@percapita.org.au
Please join us for lunch to hear the Treasurer deliver the first public post-Budget Address in Melbourne.
Date: Tuesday 17 May 2011, 12.30pm.
Venue: Swanston Room, Melbourne Town Hall, Corner Swanston and Collins Streets, Melbourne
Tickets: $2,700 + GST for a table of ten ($270 + GST individual tickets)
$1,350 + GST for non-profit organisations
For further information or to book tickets, please visit our website or contact Allison Orr on 0423 602 771 or a.orr@percapita.org.au
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Monday, May 9, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Marcus Priest writes about PerCapita Forum in today's Australian Financial Review
In today's Australian Financial Review (p5) Marcus Priest notes that speaking at a forum organised by the left-wing think-tank Per Capita "Finance Minister Penny Wong has warned that spending cuts in the budget were needed to avoid a higher tax burden on future generations."
To read the transcript link here: http://bit.ly/jkfIJG
To read the transcript link here: http://bit.ly/jkfIJG
PER CAPITA PUBLIC FORUM MELBOURNE TOWN HALL MELBOURNE THE 2011 BUDGET AND THE RETURN TO SURPLUS
The following information was released by the office of the Minister for Finance and Administration of Australia:
It is a pleasure to be speaking here today for Per Capita, an organisation that makes an invaluable, although occasionally lonely, progressive contribution to public policy and discourse.
In the descriptor of the Per Capita story, the rationale for its establishment includes the presentation of the “economic and moral cases for progressive policy reform in Australia”; a focus on the long term and the avoidance of both old and false debates.
Today I want to speak to you about the values underpinning the Budget and the economic circumstances in which it has been put together.
In this context I want to focus on the progressive case for returning the Budget to surplus, why it is in our collective long term interests; and why some of the avowedly left arguments for not doing so are part of a debate which is both old and false.
Budgets are not just an exercise in accounting; budgets reflect the values and beliefs of governments.
They are not an end in and of themselves.
They are the means by which governments deliver on their priorities.
For a Labor Government, a Budget is not just about numbers, it’s about people.
The coming Budget is framed by the need to deliver strong and progressive outcomes for this generation, and the next.
It will deliver on Labor’s tradition of fairness and our recognition that equality demands opportunity.
It will reflect our belief that a strong economy is the foundation of prosperity and fairness. That prosperity must be created to be shared.
It will enhance opportunities for those in work and remove barriers to those who are not.
It will ensure that the right supports are in place for the transition from education to employment.
The Budget will also confirm the Government’s fiscal strategy, and the pathway for returning the Budget to surplus in 2012-13.
This strategy is driven by an understanding of the consequences of failing to take responsibility on fiscal matters, both for the next few years, but also beyond.
It’s driven by an understanding of the challenges that come with the mining boom and the importance of spreading its benefits as far and wide as possible.
And it’s driven by an understanding that we must look not only to our own interests but also to the next generation’s.
We know that unsustainable spending is neither responsible nor progressive – and we know that it imposes very real consequences on our children.
The Challenge
The current economic environment presents a unique set of challenges.
It can be easy to forget the economic destruction Australia avoided due to the Government’s swift response to the global financial crisis (GFC).
The current situation in most OECD nations shows what happens when countries feel the full brunt of a financial crisis.
A recession was averted by the actions of this Labor Government.
But the effects of the GFC can still be seen in the Commonwealth Budget – although stimulus spending has wound down, revenues are lagging as companies carry forward losses and consumer sentiment is still hesitant.
The GFC was a shock to the Australian economy, and to Australians.
Consumers have responded to that shock by being cautious - paying off credit cards rather than shopping, paying down their mortgages rather than going on holidays.
In addition, the impact of the Queensland and Victorian floods and Cyclone Yasi are having a significant impact on the economy in the short term, and therefore Government revenues.
Yet these short term factors will not knock Australia off its growth trajectory.
The coming record investments in the mining and resource sectors, the best terms of trade in living memory and low unemployment will see surging growth in some sectors of the economy.
As this boom gathers pace, it will exacerbate capacity constraints and further the pressures on the patchwork economy.
Without the right policy response, this wave of investment risks increasing price pressures across the economy.
Different approach?
In facing these challenges some have called on the Government to put aside its commitment to return the Budget to surplus and allow one, two, three years or more years of deficits.
We see this call particularly from some on the left, who characterise the Government’s budget strategy as an unnecessary discipline.
But consider the consequences of this course of action.
What would be the impact of not returning to surplus in 2012-13?
In the year we will return to surplus:
the mineral sector will be booming as today’s round of investments come online, exacerbating capacity constraints and pressures on the patchwork economy;
growth will be strong and above trend; and with
an unemployment rate with four in front of it.
To not have the Budget in surplus in 2012-13 would see the Government competing with the private sector for the same resources.
Restraining spending and building surpluses means we’re not compounding inflation and cost of living pressures in the years ahead.
To do otherwise would disproportionately hit those least able to adapt, those in low paying jobs, and those on fixed incomes including students and the elderly.
It would erode incomes, putting pressure on the cost of living and additional stress on household budgets.
It would aggravate the challenges of the patchwork economy, as the cost of inputs rise, putting job creation in some sectors at risk.
As the boom surges the pressures on manufacturing, services and non-mining sectors will increase, as it draws in resources and workers.
Delaying the return to surplus can also impact the longer term sustainability of the Budget – forcing us to make harder decisions in the future.
Because we need to remember that a decision today can close off a more worthy decision tomorrow.
The Government’s response
So the Government will do what is responsible.
The Government will make the difficult decisions needed to get us back in the black.
As the Treasurer has said – If we are going to be Keynesians in the downturn, we have to be Keynesians on the way up again.
Central to framing a progressive response to these challenges is the belief that responsible fiscal policy is also responsible social policy.
With this background the Government’s budget position is clear:
returning the Budget to surplus in 2012-13;
boosting skills and participation;
addressing the pressures of a patchwork economy; and
spreading the opportunities of the mining boom.
These will be the hallmarks of this Government’s fourth Budget.
Just as there are imperatives in the near term to return to surplus, so too there is a longer term rationale.
The coming Budget will also reinforce the Government’s commitment to a fair and equitable society.
We know that a strong Budget is needed for a sustainable social safety net, and that failure to make tough calls today will require tougher calls for the next generation.
A Labor Budget – looking to the long term.
A sustainable safety net
In my time in politics I have been driven by the notion of intergenerational fairness – asking this generation to think about the next, and to act accordingly.
In Government, this idea has a particular resonance.
We expect Governments to represent the nation as a whole.
We expect them to act in the best interests of the nation.
But we also need Government to look after the next generation.
To ensure that the nation they leave for their children is better than the one they inherited from their parents.
This includes managing the budget, but it also is relevant to the broader delivery of Government services – particularly those for the most disadvantaged in society.
At the core of the Labor project is the belief that the role of Government includes helping those in need.
Those that are vulnerable.
And those that cannot provide for themselves.
Labor Governments have been central to creating our social safety net, driven by the belief that a progressive society is a just and fair society.
The idea that a strong community helps those in need and provides opportunity for those that can look after themselves.
If we focus only on meeting today’s demands we will, in the end, crowd out those in need from this generation and the next.
Creating opportunity is at the centre of Government.
But as a Labor Government we need to provide opportunities to those most in need of opportunity.
For today, and tomorrow.
From some on the Left we see the push to meet these demands – free tertiary education and increasing funding for public transport are just two examples.
On their own, these policies can be persuasive, on their own they have merit – however in aggregate they are unsustainable.
The Government providing funding for services to someone who can afford them, squeezes out funding for those who cannot.
Government’s budgets are finite, and always will be.
And in the end it is the most vulnerable that often lose out.
We know that without sustainable finances, progressive outcomes are not possible.
Labor values of fairness, equity and opportunity will not be realised.
We only have to look to the UK or the US to see the impact on social safety nets when budget positions deteriorate.
In the United Kingdom we are seeing this played out right now. You have a government faced with an economic crisis slashing spending on education and public services.
For example the UK Government has made deep and lasting cuts into the higher education sector, matched by increased university fees to a level that puts tertiary education beyond reach for thousands of Britons.
The circumstances in Greece and Ireland paint an even darker picture.
This is what can occur without sustainable and responsible budget practices.
Interestingly, when it comes to fiscal matters, arguments from some on the left can diverge from other significant policy positions.
For instance, you would struggle to find anyone associating with progressive politics who would not support action on climate change today so that tomorrow’s generation don’t have to carry an even heavier burden.
And yet this same rationale does not always apply to budgeting.
Locking in spending today is locking in a tax burden tomorrow.
With an ageing population and known structural pressures in the Commonwealth Budget, the burden on the next generation will already be heavy – and yet many on the left seem keen to add to it.
This is not the view of our Government.
For our Government, fiscal responsibility is ultimately social responsibility.
And our record is clear.
The Government has been repairing the long term structural position of budget, making family and age pensions and healthcare expenditure more sustainable.
By 2050 these saves are expected to have generated a cumulative save of $300 billion in real terms.
This is $300 billion that can be allocated to helping those most in need, investing in education or improving access to healthcare.
The Government’s position is clear – making budget cuts today will provide the foundations of a sustainable safety net and strong progressive programs.
This will require prioritisation. This will invariably require tough choices.
But it is the right approach.
The Gillard Government is acting today, to ensure higher living standards and better services for the next generation.
Jobs
Key to the framing of the 2011-12 Budget is the importance of employment.
This is not surprising.
The Labor Party was founded on the value of employment, on the principle of a fair day’s wage for a fair day’s work.
And our record stands proud following the GFC.
Where the Opposition would have faltered, the Government acted.
The stimulus program rolled out by the Government saved 200,000 jobs and stabilised the economy.
Compare these facts with other countries and you quickly see how effective the Government response was: approximately 30 million jobs were shed around the world, with around 7 million jobs lost in the US alone.
Each of these unemployed Americans has a family, each has aspirations, and each has to find another means to make ends meet.
This human side of the financial crisis was largely avoided in Australia.
And yet the imperative to work – the value of a good job – should never be taken lightly.
Against the back drop of the Mining Boom Mark II, the imperative is even greater.
And it is this imperative that will sit at the core of the Budget.
Indeed this is at the core of what it means to be a member of the Labor party – providing lifelong opportunity through improved education, training and employment.
We recognise the dignity that comes with having a job, and earning a decent wage.
This starts with job security.
We know people are doing it tough - but we also know how much tougher it would be for those without a job.
A good job provides more than your fortnightly pay cheque – it gives purpose and provides security for the future.
And in a growing economy, the Government needs do its part to realise the abilities of more Australians and invest so that they have the training and skills they need to participate.
In the current economy – in these historic economic circumstances - inclusion through participation must be our central focus.
With already low unemployment levels and high growth, the need for more workers is the catalyst needed to break persistent cycles of social and economic exclusion.
Drawing these two strands together – an economy in need of workers, and the many Australians that need work – is true to our Labor principles.
As the Treasurer outlined on Sunday, the Government will harness the boom to extend opportunity through the creation of 500,000 jobs in the next couple of years.
The Budget will provide other ways to extend greater opportunity in our society and to imbue more responsibility into the system.
This involves getting the incentives for work right.
It also requires investing in the skills and training necessary to unlock opportunity.
We want our workforce to be skilled and in jobs.
And this will be reflected in the coming Budget.
By putting in place the right incentives for work we will encourage more Australians than ever into the workforce, to enjoy the security and dignity of employment and break patterns of exclusion.
True to our Labor values we will be using the coming Budget to invest in skills and training to ensure that the economy’s thirst for labour is met, and workers are provided with the opportunity to enjoy the boom.
The return to surplus is also important in getting the settings right for the long term prosperity of Australia.
By stepping back and letting the private sector expand, the Government is making way for the creation of jobs, and putting in place the settings to see as many Australians benefit as possible.
Our participation reforms and investment in skills will not only nurture the boom, they will ensure the opportunities the boom creates are felt across our country and for years to come.
Concluding comments
In many ways the themes of the coming Budget echo my first speech to the Parliament.
In that speech I drew attention to the disadvantage in particular areas of Adelaide – the lack of post-school qualifications and high rates of youth unemployment.
I spoke of the need for an adequate safety net.
But I also expressed the view this could only be a baseline policy, that in Government we have to provide opportunities for people.
These ideas - of addressing inequities and ensuring a strong and lasting safety net and of providing opportunity through training and skills - have been close to my thinking as I’ve worked through this budget process with the Treasurer.
Together with the Prime Minister we will be delivering a Budget that is imbued with the values of the Labor tradition.
We all bring our own values to these debates, and to the Cabinet room.
For me, the belief that we should look beyond ourselves and beyond today has been central.
This drove me when I was Climate Change Minister.
Perhaps it was my father’s exhortation as I was growing up that “the next generation must be better than this one”.
After all, it is a universal human aspiration.
Yet not often enough does this common aspiration, so familiar to us in our personal lives, define our national politics.
Indeed, it is often a struggle even for well-intentioned politicians to keep that focus.
Because the politics of today focuses so much on today.
But a progressive vision demands we look ahead.
Because we know no prosperity can be secured and no social reform sustained unless we do.
It is a pleasure to be speaking here today for Per Capita, an organisation that makes an invaluable, although occasionally lonely, progressive contribution to public policy and discourse.
In the descriptor of the Per Capita story, the rationale for its establishment includes the presentation of the “economic and moral cases for progressive policy reform in Australia”; a focus on the long term and the avoidance of both old and false debates.
Today I want to speak to you about the values underpinning the Budget and the economic circumstances in which it has been put together.
In this context I want to focus on the progressive case for returning the Budget to surplus, why it is in our collective long term interests; and why some of the avowedly left arguments for not doing so are part of a debate which is both old and false.
Budgets are not just an exercise in accounting; budgets reflect the values and beliefs of governments.
They are not an end in and of themselves.
They are the means by which governments deliver on their priorities.
For a Labor Government, a Budget is not just about numbers, it’s about people.
The coming Budget is framed by the need to deliver strong and progressive outcomes for this generation, and the next.
It will deliver on Labor’s tradition of fairness and our recognition that equality demands opportunity.
It will reflect our belief that a strong economy is the foundation of prosperity and fairness. That prosperity must be created to be shared.
It will enhance opportunities for those in work and remove barriers to those who are not.
It will ensure that the right supports are in place for the transition from education to employment.
The Budget will also confirm the Government’s fiscal strategy, and the pathway for returning the Budget to surplus in 2012-13.
This strategy is driven by an understanding of the consequences of failing to take responsibility on fiscal matters, both for the next few years, but also beyond.
It’s driven by an understanding of the challenges that come with the mining boom and the importance of spreading its benefits as far and wide as possible.
And it’s driven by an understanding that we must look not only to our own interests but also to the next generation’s.
We know that unsustainable spending is neither responsible nor progressive – and we know that it imposes very real consequences on our children.
The Challenge
The current economic environment presents a unique set of challenges.
It can be easy to forget the economic destruction Australia avoided due to the Government’s swift response to the global financial crisis (GFC).
The current situation in most OECD nations shows what happens when countries feel the full brunt of a financial crisis.
A recession was averted by the actions of this Labor Government.
But the effects of the GFC can still be seen in the Commonwealth Budget – although stimulus spending has wound down, revenues are lagging as companies carry forward losses and consumer sentiment is still hesitant.
The GFC was a shock to the Australian economy, and to Australians.
Consumers have responded to that shock by being cautious - paying off credit cards rather than shopping, paying down their mortgages rather than going on holidays.
In addition, the impact of the Queensland and Victorian floods and Cyclone Yasi are having a significant impact on the economy in the short term, and therefore Government revenues.
Yet these short term factors will not knock Australia off its growth trajectory.
The coming record investments in the mining and resource sectors, the best terms of trade in living memory and low unemployment will see surging growth in some sectors of the economy.
As this boom gathers pace, it will exacerbate capacity constraints and further the pressures on the patchwork economy.
Without the right policy response, this wave of investment risks increasing price pressures across the economy.
Different approach?
In facing these challenges some have called on the Government to put aside its commitment to return the Budget to surplus and allow one, two, three years or more years of deficits.
We see this call particularly from some on the left, who characterise the Government’s budget strategy as an unnecessary discipline.
But consider the consequences of this course of action.
What would be the impact of not returning to surplus in 2012-13?
In the year we will return to surplus:
the mineral sector will be booming as today’s round of investments come online, exacerbating capacity constraints and pressures on the patchwork economy;
growth will be strong and above trend; and with
an unemployment rate with four in front of it.
To not have the Budget in surplus in 2012-13 would see the Government competing with the private sector for the same resources.
Restraining spending and building surpluses means we’re not compounding inflation and cost of living pressures in the years ahead.
To do otherwise would disproportionately hit those least able to adapt, those in low paying jobs, and those on fixed incomes including students and the elderly.
It would erode incomes, putting pressure on the cost of living and additional stress on household budgets.
It would aggravate the challenges of the patchwork economy, as the cost of inputs rise, putting job creation in some sectors at risk.
As the boom surges the pressures on manufacturing, services and non-mining sectors will increase, as it draws in resources and workers.
Delaying the return to surplus can also impact the longer term sustainability of the Budget – forcing us to make harder decisions in the future.
Because we need to remember that a decision today can close off a more worthy decision tomorrow.
The Government’s response
So the Government will do what is responsible.
The Government will make the difficult decisions needed to get us back in the black.
As the Treasurer has said – If we are going to be Keynesians in the downturn, we have to be Keynesians on the way up again.
Central to framing a progressive response to these challenges is the belief that responsible fiscal policy is also responsible social policy.
With this background the Government’s budget position is clear:
returning the Budget to surplus in 2012-13;
boosting skills and participation;
addressing the pressures of a patchwork economy; and
spreading the opportunities of the mining boom.
These will be the hallmarks of this Government’s fourth Budget.
Just as there are imperatives in the near term to return to surplus, so too there is a longer term rationale.
The coming Budget will also reinforce the Government’s commitment to a fair and equitable society.
We know that a strong Budget is needed for a sustainable social safety net, and that failure to make tough calls today will require tougher calls for the next generation.
A Labor Budget – looking to the long term.
A sustainable safety net
In my time in politics I have been driven by the notion of intergenerational fairness – asking this generation to think about the next, and to act accordingly.
In Government, this idea has a particular resonance.
We expect Governments to represent the nation as a whole.
We expect them to act in the best interests of the nation.
But we also need Government to look after the next generation.
To ensure that the nation they leave for their children is better than the one they inherited from their parents.
This includes managing the budget, but it also is relevant to the broader delivery of Government services – particularly those for the most disadvantaged in society.
At the core of the Labor project is the belief that the role of Government includes helping those in need.
Those that are vulnerable.
And those that cannot provide for themselves.
Labor Governments have been central to creating our social safety net, driven by the belief that a progressive society is a just and fair society.
The idea that a strong community helps those in need and provides opportunity for those that can look after themselves.
If we focus only on meeting today’s demands we will, in the end, crowd out those in need from this generation and the next.
Creating opportunity is at the centre of Government.
But as a Labor Government we need to provide opportunities to those most in need of opportunity.
For today, and tomorrow.
From some on the Left we see the push to meet these demands – free tertiary education and increasing funding for public transport are just two examples.
On their own, these policies can be persuasive, on their own they have merit – however in aggregate they are unsustainable.
The Government providing funding for services to someone who can afford them, squeezes out funding for those who cannot.
Government’s budgets are finite, and always will be.
And in the end it is the most vulnerable that often lose out.
We know that without sustainable finances, progressive outcomes are not possible.
Labor values of fairness, equity and opportunity will not be realised.
We only have to look to the UK or the US to see the impact on social safety nets when budget positions deteriorate.
In the United Kingdom we are seeing this played out right now. You have a government faced with an economic crisis slashing spending on education and public services.
For example the UK Government has made deep and lasting cuts into the higher education sector, matched by increased university fees to a level that puts tertiary education beyond reach for thousands of Britons.
The circumstances in Greece and Ireland paint an even darker picture.
This is what can occur without sustainable and responsible budget practices.
Interestingly, when it comes to fiscal matters, arguments from some on the left can diverge from other significant policy positions.
For instance, you would struggle to find anyone associating with progressive politics who would not support action on climate change today so that tomorrow’s generation don’t have to carry an even heavier burden.
And yet this same rationale does not always apply to budgeting.
Locking in spending today is locking in a tax burden tomorrow.
With an ageing population and known structural pressures in the Commonwealth Budget, the burden on the next generation will already be heavy – and yet many on the left seem keen to add to it.
This is not the view of our Government.
For our Government, fiscal responsibility is ultimately social responsibility.
And our record is clear.
The Government has been repairing the long term structural position of budget, making family and age pensions and healthcare expenditure more sustainable.
By 2050 these saves are expected to have generated a cumulative save of $300 billion in real terms.
This is $300 billion that can be allocated to helping those most in need, investing in education or improving access to healthcare.
The Government’s position is clear – making budget cuts today will provide the foundations of a sustainable safety net and strong progressive programs.
This will require prioritisation. This will invariably require tough choices.
But it is the right approach.
The Gillard Government is acting today, to ensure higher living standards and better services for the next generation.
Jobs
Key to the framing of the 2011-12 Budget is the importance of employment.
This is not surprising.
The Labor Party was founded on the value of employment, on the principle of a fair day’s wage for a fair day’s work.
And our record stands proud following the GFC.
Where the Opposition would have faltered, the Government acted.
The stimulus program rolled out by the Government saved 200,000 jobs and stabilised the economy.
Compare these facts with other countries and you quickly see how effective the Government response was: approximately 30 million jobs were shed around the world, with around 7 million jobs lost in the US alone.
Each of these unemployed Americans has a family, each has aspirations, and each has to find another means to make ends meet.
This human side of the financial crisis was largely avoided in Australia.
And yet the imperative to work – the value of a good job – should never be taken lightly.
Against the back drop of the Mining Boom Mark II, the imperative is even greater.
And it is this imperative that will sit at the core of the Budget.
Indeed this is at the core of what it means to be a member of the Labor party – providing lifelong opportunity through improved education, training and employment.
We recognise the dignity that comes with having a job, and earning a decent wage.
This starts with job security.
We know people are doing it tough - but we also know how much tougher it would be for those without a job.
A good job provides more than your fortnightly pay cheque – it gives purpose and provides security for the future.
And in a growing economy, the Government needs do its part to realise the abilities of more Australians and invest so that they have the training and skills they need to participate.
In the current economy – in these historic economic circumstances - inclusion through participation must be our central focus.
With already low unemployment levels and high growth, the need for more workers is the catalyst needed to break persistent cycles of social and economic exclusion.
Drawing these two strands together – an economy in need of workers, and the many Australians that need work – is true to our Labor principles.
As the Treasurer outlined on Sunday, the Government will harness the boom to extend opportunity through the creation of 500,000 jobs in the next couple of years.
The Budget will provide other ways to extend greater opportunity in our society and to imbue more responsibility into the system.
This involves getting the incentives for work right.
It also requires investing in the skills and training necessary to unlock opportunity.
We want our workforce to be skilled and in jobs.
And this will be reflected in the coming Budget.
By putting in place the right incentives for work we will encourage more Australians than ever into the workforce, to enjoy the security and dignity of employment and break patterns of exclusion.
True to our Labor values we will be using the coming Budget to invest in skills and training to ensure that the economy’s thirst for labour is met, and workers are provided with the opportunity to enjoy the boom.
The return to surplus is also important in getting the settings right for the long term prosperity of Australia.
By stepping back and letting the private sector expand, the Government is making way for the creation of jobs, and putting in place the settings to see as many Australians benefit as possible.
Our participation reforms and investment in skills will not only nurture the boom, they will ensure the opportunities the boom creates are felt across our country and for years to come.
Concluding comments
In many ways the themes of the coming Budget echo my first speech to the Parliament.
In that speech I drew attention to the disadvantage in particular areas of Adelaide – the lack of post-school qualifications and high rates of youth unemployment.
I spoke of the need for an adequate safety net.
But I also expressed the view this could only be a baseline policy, that in Government we have to provide opportunities for people.
These ideas - of addressing inequities and ensuring a strong and lasting safety net and of providing opportunity through training and skills - have been close to my thinking as I’ve worked through this budget process with the Treasurer.
Together with the Prime Minister we will be delivering a Budget that is imbued with the values of the Labor tradition.
We all bring our own values to these debates, and to the Cabinet room.
For me, the belief that we should look beyond ourselves and beyond today has been central.
This drove me when I was Climate Change Minister.
Perhaps it was my father’s exhortation as I was growing up that “the next generation must be better than this one”.
After all, it is a universal human aspiration.
Yet not often enough does this common aspiration, so familiar to us in our personal lives, define our national politics.
Indeed, it is often a struggle even for well-intentioned politicians to keep that focus.
Because the politics of today focuses so much on today.
But a progressive vision demands we look ahead.
Because we know no prosperity can be secured and no social reform sustained unless we do.
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